Analysts believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will inevitably fight another war to save his political future when the military war he is waging in Gaza ends.
The October 7 attack shocked the country, which united its ranks in support of the declaration of war issued by the 74-year-old Prime Minister, pledging to “crush the Hamas movement.”
Analysts believe the security vulnerabilities revealed by the Hamas attack could be the biggest blow, if not the final blow, to the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history, who faces judicial and political problems.
Toby Green, a professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University in Israel and a researcher at the London School of Economics, said in an Agence France-Presse report: “Support for Netanyahu and his coalition had begun to decline even before of October 7th. , and since the outbreak of the war it has decreased further”. He added: “If the elections are held now, he will suffer a serious loss.”
Indeed, recent opinion polls indicate declining support for Netanyahu and his right-wing party (Likud).
Many Israelis, especially in attacked areas near the Gaza border, feel bitter about the lack of protection.
Since October 7, around 1,400 people have been killed in Israel, most of whom were civilians who fell on the first day of the attack. Israel responded to the Hamas attack a month ago with a devastating bombardment of the besieged Gaza Strip, killing around 9,500 people, most of them civilians, according to the Hamas Health Ministry.
Under Netanyahu, a former special forces officer who has always presented himself as a staunch defender of his people, the sense of security that prevailed among most Israelis has evaporated.
To gain some time
While military and intelligence agencies have acknowledged security failures, Netanyahu has yet to acknowledge any responsibility for the sudden Hamas attack. He once declared that the reckoning would come after the war.
Netanyahu’s allies remained silent about his role, and some of his opponents joined his government after the war broke out.
Reuven Hazan, a political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, described Netanyahu, who has led Israel for about 16 years, as a “brilliant” politician who is currently playing for time. Hazan says Netanyahu “already knows that he is fighting for his survival, and every decision he makes in this war is aimed at ensuring that.”
When asked if he would consider resigning, Netanyahu recently said at a press conference: “The only party whose resignation I intend to call for is Hamas.”
Netanyahu apologized for a post on Platform X, which he later deleted, in which he accused security officials and other intelligence officials of failing to alert him to the dangers of a Hamas attack on Israel.
To remove Netanyahu as prime minister, he will have to resign or lose the parliamentary majority enjoyed by his party’s coalition with far-right and ultra-Orthodox religious parties.
High-tech tycoon Amnon Shashua says Netanyahu’s government must be overthrown “immediately” due to its “failures, discord and incompetence.”
“Damaged” leadership.
Netanyahu was under pressure before the Hamas attacks. Analysts say political conflict is inevitable and a matter of time.
The Prime Minister is still on trial in 3 corruption cases. In the nine months leading up to October 7, there were mass protests against controversial judicial reforms that his government is trying to pass and which opponents see as a threat to democracy.
Hazan says Israel was witnessing an “internal rupture” before the war. But he emphasizes that “there is currently no political life because of the war”, and adds: “At some point, political life will return.” “Questions will be asked and then the protests will return.”
When the war ends, it is likely that a committee of inquiry will be formed, either a government committee with relatively limited powers, or a more independent national committee.
If Netanyahu is found to bear some responsibility for the loopholes that Hamas has exploited to attack, his political problems could deepen and threaten his future.
The government had warned that the war would last months and that Netanyahu was not obliged to hold elections three years ago, but observers believe it will be difficult for him to hold out that long.
Hazan says: “Everyone knows it has been damaged,” highlighting signs that coalition members “realize the game is up.”
Opinion polls indicate that the preferred candidate among Israelis now is; Center leader Benny Gantz, minister without portfolio of the wartime government, who was in the ranks of the opposition before the outbreak of fighting.
Green says: “Netanyahu’s legacy has been destroyed by the division he sowed through the judicial reforms and multiple failures that made the October 7 attack possible.” And he adds: “Many Israelis believe that these two issues are interconnected.”