Accuracy dropped significantly: Tom Brady ranked second in accurate throw percentage from 2015 to 2019, while Mac Jones ranks 18th in this metric since entering the league.
Jones had too many sacks: Jones was sacked more often than Brady, which put more pressure on the offense.
The Pats didn’t muster enough game action: Jones played nearly 28% of the time during his rookie season. Now, it’s called only 19% of the time.
Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
For two decades, the New England Patriots hired one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. During that time, the organization won six Super Bowls and came close to winning three more. They have won 17 AFC East titles and are the first team to go undefeated in the regular season since the 1972 Miami Dolphins.
The organization was in turmoil after Tom Brady left. Their salary cap situation is in dire need of a reboot. There is no franchise quarterback on the roster, and the COVID-19 pandemic forced many of the Patriots’ best players to opt out of the season.
The 2021 NFL Draft marks a new beginning for the franchise after selecting Alabama’s Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick. But after the Patriots had a promising rookie year and made the playoffs, it all started going downhill.
While Mac Jones didn’t have a Brady-like rookie year, he showed the ability to be a game manager who can thrive in an ideal situation with good play-calling, a solid offensive line, and a ferocious defense. . But since then, Jones has been different and the Patriots have struggled.
Let’s examine the various metrics that separate Brady and Jones to see what the Patriots have been missing since Brady left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020.
PFF Pass Grade
First, let’s look at Brady and Jones’ PFF grades. PFF grades attempt to isolate players from their surroundings and evaluate different areas of a quarterback, such as decision-making, accuracy and timing.
As you can see, there’s quite a difference between Brady’s results during his time in New England and Mac Jones’ results since he was drafted.
During 2014, some wondered whether Brady had begun to decline and Father Time had finally caught up with him, but he responded with the best years of his career, playing in each of the next four seasons. Achieved elite results every season and took home two MVP awards.
Jones isn’t close to Brady from a ratings standpoint, and the young quarterback’s performance in 2023 has been pretty poor.
Estimated points added per return trip (EPA)
Expected points earned per dropback (EPA) and PFF grade are fairly correlated, as good quarterback performance will likely lead to good efficiency numbers. So it’s not surprising to see a similar trend here.
Brady never recorded a negative EPA per drop from 2012 to 2019, while Mac Jones is averaging -0.08 EPA per drop in 2022.
EPA is affected by the circumstances surrounding a quarterback, but if you look at some of the skill position players Brady threw to in the mid-2010s, you can’t find many excuses for Mac Jones and his weapons.
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Play rate worth the turnover
Mac Jones has really struggled with decision-making this season. While decision making isn’t entirely captured by our turnover value play metric (TWP), it’s one of the best measures we have for understanding how often quarterbacks put the ball in dangerous spots.
Jones has been terrible in this metric in 2023, with his 5.1% turnover rate ranking sixth in the league over the past 10 weeks. His turnover rate has also essentially doubled compared to 2022.
Jones was supposed to return to his rookie form this year after the Patriots ousted Matt Patricia and Joe Judge and named Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator. Instead, he was arguably his worst ever, and the Patriots are in uncharted territory, considering how well Brady kept the ball out of harm’s way during his time in New England.
bag rate
It’s interesting to see Brady’s ups and downs in terms of sack rate during his final eight years with the Patriots. His down years (2013, 2015, 2017) usually occurred during seasons when Brady suffered numerous injuries to skill position players or the offensive line.
For example, the 2017 Patriots lost Julian Edelman in the preseason and moved to an offense with higher target depth in Chris Hogan, Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks. Si serves as the main target in the frontcourt. Brady’s average depth of target that season was 9.5 yards, his highest from 2012-2019. He also recorded a longer average throw time (2.62 seconds). In turn, he racked up more sacks.
Jones had more sacks than Brady, which put more pressure on the offense.
Team passing grade
Jones’ shot blocking isn’t even that bad outside of 2023. In 2021 and 2022, the Patriots received team pass-blocking grades similar to what they got for Brady, even though legendary offensive coach Dante Scarnecchia is not on the staff.
Accuracy
Ultimately, the biggest difference between Jones and Brady is their accuracy.
Brady has been one of the league’s most accurate passers, while Jones’ 59.3% accuracy so far in 2021 ranks only 18th among 35 qualified passers.
From 2015 to 2019, Brady ranked second in passing accuracy, second only to Drew Brees.
Patriots’ accuracy goes from top in league to league average take a look and The short time interval is another factor in the decline of their offensive ability.
game action rate
We’ve talked a lot about where Mack struggles and how he’s been demoted by Brady. So, how can he get closer to 2021 production?
Well, the Patriots should start by playing at a higher pace. In 2021, Jones was in play action nearly 28% of the time. This year, the Patriots have a call rate of about 19.1%, which ranks 30th among quarterbacks.
Game actions are often more effective than non-game actions. So it’s no surprise that a Mac’s most productive years come when it’s running a lot of data. Considering Houston played nearly 25 percent of the offense during Deshaun Watson’s final two years with O’Brien, Jones is expected to play more games this year under Bill O’Brien.
Part of it could be a game script, though. The Patriots have had some blowout seasons this year, and running play-action plays on three possessions isn’t going to do anything. But announcing this decision often and early could solve the Patriots’ woes.
The Patriots still have a long road ahead of them
From one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time to almost anyone Otherwise it will be downgraded. When Brady leaves New England, the Patriots may be hoping they can rebuild a signal-caller who can win a rookie contract under ideal circumstances. While the first year of the program seemed to work, it’s been largely downhill since then, and the underlying metrics surrounding Mac Jones suggest it may not be getting any better.