Scott’s first look at the Oscar race since TIFF – The Hollywood Reporter

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, compiled Hollywood ReporterThe magazine’s executive editor for awards coverage, Scott Feinberg, reflects Scott’s best attempt at predicting the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences: note his personal preferences. He arrives at these predictions through consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, the results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates reflecting new developments.

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Best picture

Oppenheimer (Universal)
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Poor things (Spotlight)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
American fiction (Amazon/MGM)
Past Lives (A24)
Leftovers (Focus)
Owner (Netflix)
Area of ​​interest (A24)
Nyad (Netflix)

Main threats
Anatomy of a fall (Neon)
We are all strangers (Spotlight)
Dream scenario (A24)
Source (Neon)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
American Symphony (Netflix)
Rustin (Netflix)

A taste of things (IFC)
Air (Amazon/MGM)
May December (Netflix)
Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
Dumb Money (Sony)
Fair (Netflix)

I can’t call yet
Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Ferrari (Neon)
Iron claw (A24)
Murderer (Netflix)
Napoleon (Apple/Sony)
Priscilla (A24)

Best Director

Greta Gerwig (ur.Barbie) – podcast
Christopher Nolan (ur.Oppenheimer)
Yorgos LanthimosPoor things)
Martin Scorsese (eng.Killers of the Flower Moon)
Jonathan GlaserArea of ​​interest)

Main threats
Celine Song ((Past Lives)
Cord JeffersonAmerican fiction)
Bradley Cooper (Owner)
Alexander Payne (English)Leftovers)
Justine TrietAnatomy of a fall)
Andrew Hay (English)We are all strangers)
Ava DuVernay (ur.Source)

Jimmy Chin and Chai Vasarhelyi (Nyad)
Todd Haynes (ur.May December) – podcast
Emerald FennellSaltburn)
Ben Affleck (Air) – podcast
Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers and Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse)
An Hong Chan (English)A taste of things)
George C. Wolfe (Rustin)

I can’t call yet
Blitz Bazavule (Color Purple)
Sofia Coppola (English)Priscilla)
Garth Davis (ur.Enemy)
Sean Durkin (ur.Iron claw)
David Fincher (ur.Murderer)
Michael Mann ((Ferrari)
Ridley Scott (English)Napoleon)

Best Actor

Cillian Murphy (ur.Oppenheimer)
Colman DomingoRustin)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Paul Giamatti (English)Leftovers)
Bradley Cooper (Owner)

Main threats
Jeffrey WrightAmerican fiction)
Nicolas Cage (Dream scenario) – podcast
Andrew Scott (We are all strangers)
Matt Damon (Air)
Barry Keoghan (ur.Saltburn)
Christian Friedel (English)Area of ​​interest)

Alden Ehrenreich (ur.Fair)
Theo Yu (Past Lives)
Koji Yakusho (English)Ideal days)
Benoit MagimelA taste of things)
Gael Garcia BernalCassander)
Paul DanoDumb Money)
Taron Egerton (ur.Tetris) – podcast

I can’t call yet
Adam DriverFerrari)
Zac Efron (Iron claw)
Michael Fassbender (ur.Murderer)
Paul Mescal (English)Enemy)
Joaquin Phoenix (ur.Napoleon)

Best Actress

Annette Bening (ur.Nyad)
Emma Stone (Poor things) – podcast
Margot Robbie (ur.Barbie) – podcast
Lily Gladstone (ur.Killers of the Flower Moon)
Carey Mulligan (ur.Owner) – podcast

Main threats
Natalie Portman (May December) – podcast
Sandra Hüller (ur.Anatomy of a fall)
Greta Lee (English)Past Lives)
Aunjanue Ellis-TaylorSource) – podcast
Phoebe Dynevor (ur.Fair)

Helen Mirren (ur.Golda) – podcast
Juliette Binoche (ur.A taste of things)
Leonie BenesTeacher’s lounge)
Jodie Comer (ur.Cyclists) – podcast
Eve HewsonFlora and son)

I can’t call yet
Fantasy Barrino (Color Purple)
Saoirse Ronan (English)Enemy) – podcast
Cailee Spaeny (ur.Priscilla)

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (ur.Poor things)
Robert De Niro (ur.Killers of the Flower Moon) – podcast
Jesse Plemons (ur.Killers of the Flower Moon) – podcast

Main threats
Sterling K. Brown (American fiction) – podcast
Willem Dafoe (ur.Poor things) – podcast
Charles Melton (ur.May December)
John MagaroPast Lives)
Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)
Chris Messina (ur.Air)

Dominic SessaLeftovers)
Glenn Howerton (ur.Blackberry)
Eddie Marsan (ur.Fair)
Jon BernthalSource)
Richard E. Grant (Saltburn) – podcast

I can’t call yet
Colman DomingoColor Purple)
Corey Hawkins (ur.Color Purple) – podcast
Tahar Rahim (English)Napoleon)
Jeremy Allen WhiteIron claw)

Best Supporting Actress

Da’Vine Joy RandolphLeftovers)
Sandra Hüller (ur.Area of ​​interest)
Jodie Foster (ur.Nyad) – podcast
Julianne Moore (English)May December)
Rosamund Pike (ur.Saltburn) – podcast

Main threats
Emily Blunt (English)Oppenheimer)
Viola Davis (ur.Air)
Claire Foy (English)We are all strangers) – podcast
America Ferrera (Barbie)

Florence Pugh (ur.Oppenheimer) – podcast
Rhea Perlman (ur.Barbie)
Niecy Nash-BettsSource)
Julianne Nicholson (ur.Dream scenario)

I can’t call yet
Halle Bailey (English)Color Purple)
Daniel Brooks (ur.Color Purple)
Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) – podcast
HER (Color Purple) – podcast
Taraji P. Henson (Color Purple) – podcast
Lily James ((Iron claw) – podcast
Vanessa Kirby (ur.Napoleon)
Tilda Swinton (ur.Murderer)
Maura Tierney (ur.Iron claw)
Shailene Woodley (ur.Ferrari)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor things (Tony McNamara)
American fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Area of ​​interest (Jonathan Glaser)

Main threats
We are all strangers (Andrew Hay)
Source (Ava DuVernay)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)

Nyad (Julia Cox)
Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Shuker Blum)
Cyclists (Jeff Nichols)

I can’t call yet
Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin and Brock Yates)
Enemy (Garth Davis and Ian Reid)
Murderer (Alexis Nolent and Kevin Walker)
Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)

Best Original Screenplay

Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) – podcast (Gerwig)
Past Lives (Celine Song)
Leftovers (David Hemingson)
Dream scenario (Christoffer Borgley)
Anatomy of a fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)

Main threats
Owner (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
Teacher’s lounge (Ilker Çatak and Johannes Duncker)
Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
Fair (Chloe Domont)
Air (Alex Convery)

May December (Sam Birch and Alex Mechanic)
Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Brees)
Cassander (David Teague and Roger Ross Williams) – podcast (Williams)
Flora and son (John Carney)

I can’t call yet
Iron claw (Sean Durkin)
Napoleon (David Scarpa)

Best International Feature Film

Area of ​​interest (Great Britain)
A taste of things (France)
Teacher’s lounge (Germany)
Ideal days (Japan)
20 days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

I can’t call yet
I’m the captain (Italy)
Godland (Iceland)
Shaida (Australia)
Snow Society (Spain)
Fallen leaves (Finland)
Lessons of the Good (Bulgaria)
Four daughters (Tunisia)
About dry herbs (Türkiye)

Best Documentary

American Symphony (Netflix)
Kokomo City (Magnolia)
Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
The deepest breath (Netflix)
Beyond Utopia (Roadside)

Main threats
20 days in Mariupol (PBS)
Everlasting memory (MTV)
Mission (Nat Geo)
Stamped from the start (Netflix) – podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
Still (Apple) – podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)

Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
All (Focus)
Kill the tiger (still seeking US distribution)
King Coal (still seeking US distribution)
League (Magnolia)

I can’t call yet
aka Mr. Chow (still seeking US distribution)
Black ice (Lionsgate)
Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
Cup 71 (still seeking US distribution)
Disobedient (still seeking US distribution)
The disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
Hollywoodgate (still seeking US distribution)
Lakota Nation Vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I am everything (Magnolia)
Menu-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
Orlando, My political biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBK)
What the hell happened to the blood, sweat and tears? (Abramorama)
While we were watching (PBS)
your fat friend (still looking for distribution)

Best Animated Film

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Elemental (Pixar) – podcast (Pete Docter)
Boy and heron (GKIDS)
They shot the pianist (Sony Classics)
Nimona (Netflix)

Main threats
Movie “Super Mario Brothers” (Lighting)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Primary importance)

I can’t call yet
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest and Celestine: Journey to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
First slam dunk (GKIDS)
Leo (Netflix)
Migration (Lighting)
RobotDreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls unite (DreamWorks)
Wish (Disney)

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