Climate warming caused “primarily” by the burning of oil, gas and coal has led to “severe drought” and persistence in recent years in Iraq, Syria and Iran, an expert report revealed on Wednesday.
A study by the World Weather Association (WWA), which analyzes the link between meteorological factors and climate change, indicates that high temperatures resulting from climate change have “increased the probability of drought occurrence by 25 times in Syria and Iraq, and by 16 times in Iran.” .
The study also talks about the role of “years of conflict and political instability” in crippling countries’ ability to cope with drought, causing a “humanitarian catastrophe”.
Under current conditions, there is an increased risk that these droughts will become a regular event, occurring at least once a decade.
The experts of this network explain that “the drought would not have happened without climate change caused mainly by the burning of oil, gas and coal”.
This study covers the period between July 2020 and June 2023, in two regions very vulnerable to the repercussions of climate change: Iran and the Tigris-Euphrates river basin region, which originate in Turkey and pass through Syria and ‘Iraq.
The statement released alongside the study indicates that “these two regions are currently experiencing a “severe drought” according to the American Drought Monitoring Scale.”
The study explains that “climate change caused by human activity has increased the severity of this drought, and if the global temperature had been 1.2 degrees Celsius” lower than before the industrial revolution, “the issue would not have been so serious”.
Frederic Otto, climatologist at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, says: “After good rains and harvests in 2020, three years have passed in which rainfall has been weak and temperatures have been high, leading to a drought that has had serious repercussions on the world economy. access to water.” .) for agriculture.
“I’m not optimistic”
During an online press conference, climate scientist Mohammad Rahimi of Iran’s Semnan University called for better resource management.
“In our region we have never had much rain, and this is normal. But what is new is the increase in temperatures.”
The expert who participated in the study continued: “We lose much of the rain due to evaporation, and if the temperature rises further in the coming years, we can expect greater evaporation and transpiration of plants.”
“I’m not very optimistic about the future,” he added.
In Iraq, one of the world’s largest oil producers, as well as war-torn Syria, AFP correspondents often see the repercussions of climate change and drought, which especially affect poorer communities.
Agricultural production has declined significantly in recent years in both countries, especially in previously grain-rich areas. Furthermore, the lowering of river levels and their pollution have also affected the fishing profession.
“Water crisis”
According to the study, as of September 2022, drought has displaced approximately two million people in Syria living in rural areas. In Iran, water shortages are causing “tensions” with neighboring countries, and poor harvests have led to rising food prices.
In Iraq, where the number of people displaced by climate change numbers in the tens of thousands, the level of tension over water distribution is also growing. According to a United Nations report, in a country with a population of 43 million, one in five Iraqis lives in an area suffering from water scarcity.
There are many factors behind this “complex water crisis” in the Middle East, in which humans play a role: ancient irrigation methods, rapid population growth, but also “limitations in water resource management and regional cooperation”, especially regarding dam management and the different river water levels in upstream and downstream countries.
As for long dry spells, they will no longer be a “rare event,” according to experts, as drought seasons “could occur at least once every ten years in Syria and Iraq, and twice every ten years in Iran.” .
Experts warn that the possibility of a drought could double “if global warming increases by another two degrees compared to the pre-industrial revolution period, which could happen in the coming decades unless fossil fuels are quickly abandoned”.