Iran-backed militants in Iraq and Syria have long battled U.S. and coalition forces and have launched sporadic attacks on bases in the region, where forces are deployed to fight ISIS militants. But since October 17, when the civilian death toll in Israel’s war against Hamas began to rise, there has been a significant increase in attacks by Iranian proxies operating under the aegis of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.
While most of the more than 15 strikes were largely ineffective, at least 60 American personnel suffered minor injuries. Most cases were traumatic brain injuries caused by explosions, and all troops have returned to duty, according to the Pentagon.
In responding to the attacks, the United States has walked a delicate line, as the U.S. military responded only three times, as the Biden administration works to balance efforts to deter militants without provoking a broader conflict in the Middle East. Iran-backed militants have launched 61 attacks against bases and facilities housing American personnel in Iraq and Syria since October 17, according to the Pentagon. Of these attacks, 29 occurred in Iraq and 32 in Syria.
Against ISIS
The United States has about 2,000 American troops in Iraq, under an agreement with the Baghdad government, and about 900 troops in Syria, mainly to counter ISIS, but also using the Al-Tanf garrison in the far south to monitor Iranian agents transporting weapons across the border.
The latest surge in attacks began 10 days after Hamas’ incursion into Israel on October 7, in which at least 1,200 people were killed. Israel’s violent military response has killed thousands of civilians trapped in Gaza and fueled threats of retaliation from a range of Iranian-backed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Yemen-based Houthis and militants in Iraq and Syria. These threats intensified after the October 17 explosion at a hospital in Gaza, which killed hundreds of civilians. Hamas blamed Israel for the explosion, but Israel denied this, and Israeli and American officials attributed the explosion to a missile error by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement.
Most attacks against bases and facilities were carried out with drones or suicide missiles in one direction, and in most cases there were no casualties but only minor damage, according to the Associated Press. In the first attacks which took place between 17 and 21 October against the Al-Asad air base in Iraq and in Al-Tanf, numerous injuries occurred, especially cerebral injuries. One of the American contractors suffered a heart attack and died while taking shelter from a possible drone attack. .
Power vacuum
With a power vacuum and years of civil conflict following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, militias have grown and multiplied in Iraq, some of them backed by Iran. A decade later, when ISIS invaded Iraq, a number of Iranian-backed militias gathered under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces and fought ISIS.
The groups included Asaib Ahl al-Haq, the Badr Brigades, and the Hezbollah Brigades, a separate group from the Lebanese Hezbollah. Several Iraqi militias also operate in Syria, where Iran supports the government of Bashar al-Assad against opposition groups in the uprising that resulted in a civil war that began in 2011. After the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas, a group of Iranian-backed factions have classified themselves under the name of the new Islamic resistance in Iraq, and the latest wave of attacks has begun against bases hosting American forces in Iraq and Syria.
The attacks put Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani in a difficult position. Although he came to power with the support of Iranian-backed groups, he also wants to continue to maintain good relations with the United States and has supported the continued presence of American forces in his country.
Consequences of supporting militias
For his part, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, in a meeting with Al-Sudani this month, warned of the consequences of Iranian-backed militias continuing to attack US facilities in Iraq and Syria. Al-Sudani then traveled to Tehran and met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a meeting that American officials considered a positive development. An official from an Iran-backed militia said Al-Sudani put “great pressure” on the militias not to carry out attacks during Blinken’s visit. He added that Al-Sudani, in exchange, promised to push the Americans not to respond with force to the militias that carried out the attacks. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly.
After the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, the Biden administration moved warships, fighter jets, air defense systems and other troops to the Middle East in a campaign to dissuade armed groups from expanding the conflict.
But the American military response to attacks on its forces has been minimal. On October 27, American fighter jets bombed two weapons and ammunition storage sites in eastern Syria near Albukamal used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Iranian-backed groups.
On November 8, fighter planes dropped bombs on an arms depot belonging to the Revolutionary Guard near Maysloun in Deir ez-Zor. On November 12, American airstrikes targeted a training facility and shelter in the Bulbul area of Al-Mayadeen. American officials said individuals associated with the Revolutionary Guard were present and were likely beaten, but provided no details.
The concerns of the American administration
There are fears within the US administration that greater retaliation could lead to an escalation of violence and result in more deadly attacks. The Pentagon says the attacks damaged the group’s military stockpiles and rendered sites inoperable, but critics say the U.S. response pales in comparison to the 60 attacks and U.S. casualties and, more importantly, clearly fails to deter the groups.
Although nearly half of the attacks occurred against American bases in Iraq, the United States launched retaliatory airstrikes only against sites in Syria. The Pentagon defends the strike decision by saying that the United States is striking Revolutionary Guard sites, which has a more direct impact on Tehran. Officials say the goal is to pressure Iran to tell the militias to stop the attacks. They also say the sites were chosen because they are weapons depots and logistics centers used by Iran-linked militias, and their removal would undermine the insurgents’ offensive capabilities.
Alienate the Iraqi government
However, one of the main reasons the United States is focused on Syria is that the United States does not want to risk alienating the Iraqi government by launching attacks within its borders, which could result in Iraqis being killed or injured. In early January 2020, the United States launched an airstrike in Baghdad, killing General Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of Iran-backed militias in Iraq. The strike led to strained relations with the Iraqi government and sparked calls for the withdrawal of all American forces from the country.
The United States considers its presence in Iraq crucial in the war against ISIS, its ability to support forces in Syria and its continued influence in the region. Military leaders have worked to restore good relations with Baghdad, while also providing continued support to Iraqi forces.