The text of Ursula von der Leyen’s final speech on the state of the country ahead of the European elections in June 2024 is one of Brussels’ best-kept secrets. However, the topics are already known: the focus of the discussion will most likely be migration control and the implementation of the Green Deal.
Politically, the speech he will give on Wednesday (September 13) in Strasbourg will be a big talk for some.
In Germany, the EU’s largest economy where von der Leyen is from, her speech is not high on the agenda of the three ruling parties – the SPD (S&D), the FDP and the Greens.
Christian Petrie, the SPD’s spokesman for European affairs, said: “I don’t expect any truly new initiatives as the end of his mandate is near.”
But Wednesday’s speech – and what follows from it – will be crucial for the election campaign and the composition of the EU’s next executive body.
All major political parties are already participating in election maneuvers.
The center-right European People’s Party (EPP), of which von der Leyen is a member, is seeking to stake a claim on immigration controls in a bid to contain right-wing nationalist parties such as Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Spain’s VOX.
Von der Leyen hopes the €785 million agreement with Tunisia, which includes budgetary support and investment in exchange for greater controls on the departure of migrants from the North African state, will become a model for similar agreements with northern African countries and will in turn be introduced to voters as proof that the EPP is solving Europe’s migration dilemma.
We can expect a clearer timetable for the progress of these negotiations and the conclusion of several legislative files aimed at overhauling the bloc’s immigration and asylum rules.
MEPs will discuss the pact with Tunisia on Tuesday (September 12), ahead of his speech, and that will give some indication of how it will be received.
For their part, the group of socialists and democrats called on the Commission to focus on finalizing legislation for the transition to the Green Deal, including laws on nature restoration and air quality.
The Green Deal, led by Frans Timmermans, a center-left Dutch politician who has just left his post as Commission vice-president to lead a left-Green alliance ahead of the Dutch national elections in November, is likely the flagship of the von der Leyen Commission. This is also the political territory where the Socialists want to defeat the Green parties ahead of June next year.
Last week, Irache García Pérez and Pedro Márquez, president and vice-president of S&D, said the Commission must also strengthen the social framework to help citizens cope with the rising cost of living, create permanent financial capacity for the EU, embrace solidarity. based on the migration pact and take a decisive step towards expansion.
The Greens are also asking for their space
“There is still a lot to be done because the EU faces huge challenges. The terrible fires and floods in southern Europe are a dramatic reminder of the consequences of the climate crisis,” Anton Hofreiter, a Green MP who chairs the Bundestag’s European Affairs Committee, told EURACTIV.
“The best prevention is quick and concrete action to protect the climate. This is why Fit for 55 must succeed, even despite resistance from the EPP,” he added.
From regulation to implementation?
However, others hope Wednesday’s speech will take into account industry warnings about the burden of the EU net zero law and that there will be a legislative pause to focus on implementing what is already in place.
On the French side, President Emmanuel Macron has expressed a desire to see EU policies – especially environmental ones – implemented rather than continuing to add new rules. Macron’s previous comments about the need for a regulatory “pause” have meanwhile received significant support from other leaders.
“Climate protection is better achieved through technical innovation than through rules that restrict the economy,” Michael Georg Link, spokesman for European affairs of the FDP parliamentary group in the Bundestag, told EURACTIV.
Von der Leyen’s position, which follows EPP leader Manfred Weber’s recent move to shift the European center right towards a more industry-friendly stance on climate policy, is also being eagerly awaited by the other two parties in the German coalition: the Greens and the Social Democrats. .
Jens Geyer, who heads the SPD group in the European Parliament, said that “one of the most sensitive issues will be whether she (von der Leyen) will remain committed to the European Green Deal.”
Overall, it would be a surprise if MEPs were too harsh in their assessment of von der Leyen on Wednesday, except on the far left and right who may object to some of von der Leyen’s policies.
“Looking at our experience so far, I have a lot to be proud of. “Europe has remained united in the face of unprecedented challenges, from the COVID pandemic to Putin’s criminal invasion of Ukraine,” a spokesman for the centrist group Renew Europe told EURACTIV.
Renew has called for an initiative to cut red tape for small businesses, which the next Commission should cover under a dedicated portfolio.
In this sense, one can expect a reference to the plans of Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton to ease the bureaucratic burden for small and medium-sized businesses.
Nuclear power and how its financing is viewed in terms of state aid rules and rules for reviving the industry are also vital for Paris, officials said.
France is also waiting for clear lines to be drawn “on fundamental issues” ranging from reform of EU fiscal rules to the energy market, immigration and financing the green transition.
These issues, although technical, will become highly political in the context of the 2024 European elections, a French diplomatic source told EURACTIV.
Elephant in the room
The elephant in the room that few expect von der Leyen to comment on is whether she will seek a second term. Last week, von der Leyen refused to say whether she wanted to remain at the helm of the Commission or, as some believe, she would seek the soon-to-be-vacant post of NATO secretary general.
Paris is waiting to hear whether Ursula von der Leyen wants to run for a new mandate at the head of the European Commission, a French diplomatic source told EURACTIV. Like all politicians in Brussels.
(Editing by Zoran Radosavljevic/Natalie Weatherald)
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