It’s time for the NBA regular season opener again, which means there will be a fresh and interesting set of storylines to keep an eye on as the game unfolds. To help manage it all, we’ve compiled what we believe are the league’s most pressing issues heading into the 2023-24 season, and we’re also launching a new NBA projection model that updates strength ratings and odds every morning to track who has the best odds. Maybe make it to the finals and win the championship. (You can learn how it works here.)
So, in the spirit of a classic fan guide, let’s take a deep dive into what’s going on in the league, starting with…
How good is Victor Wembanyama?
It’s no exaggeration to say that we’ve never seen a player quite like the San Antonio Spurs’ 7-foot-4 phenom Victor Wembanyama. (At least outside of NBA 2K’s Create Player feature.) Wembanyama is lanky, but he has the ability to play game-changing defense — he averaged 1 steal and 2.8 blocks per game during the preseason — while also showing up on the defensive end Ridiculous tricks. The size of the attacking side of the ball. Add to that the coaching of Gregg Popovich, and it’s hard not to be excited for Vumbanyama’s future as a potential all-time great.
Of course, there will be growing pains along the way. Keep in mind that the history of these “super tall” NBA players isn’t as full of sure things as you might think, since height is one of the great advantages in basketball. Of the 24 retired players in NBA history who are 7 feet 3 inches tall or taller, only three — Yao Ming, Arvydas Sabonis and Ralph Sampson — are in the Hall of Fame. There is, of course, a good reason that the Wembanyama is too different from either of these for this comparison to be valid. But at the same time, whenever the hype surrounding Wimby started to get too out of hand this season, it was a good thing to look back on.
How big a threat are LeBron and the Lakers?
The Los Angeles Lakers have the seventh-best title chances among all teams in our default composite model (although part of that is because they rank fifth in the projected betting odds section). Any team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis is bound to be hyped heading into the new season — even if it all falls apart in the end. But no matter what you think of the Lakers, they’ve probably been one of the most compelling and confusing teams in the league all season.
If we look at the value added vs. subtracted from the offseason based on my consensus win-plus/minus above alternative statistic (which blends multiple different advanced metrics into one number), Los Angeles ranks in the bottom three, with the metric panning out as follows: Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince, Cam Reddish and Jackson Hayes. (Christian Wood, at least statistically, is more favored.) All of this is built on a 43-win team that will spend most of the 2022-23 season 500, and its best players are breaking through as the NBA ages.
However, there’s no denying how impressive the Lakers were in the playoffs, beating the Memphis Grizzlies and (especially) the defending champion Warriors before taking on the Denver Nuggets machine in the Western Conference Finals. There’s no denying that young players like Austin Reeves and Rui Hachimura have the potential to continue to improve and increase the team’s ceiling. As long as James and Davis are together and healthy — which, as we’ve seen, is no guarantee — the Lakers can always exceed expectations when needed.
Can the Celtics finally live up to their potential?
As our prediction table shows, the Boston Celtics are the favorite to win the 2023-24 NBA championship. In large part, that’s because Boston was the best team on paper in 2021-22 and 2022-23, but ended up short of a championship in both seasons as the Celtics finished in 22 They lost to the Golden State Warriors in the 2023 Finals and then fell behind the Miami Heat 0-3 in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals and failed to reverse. This is a team that has historically failed to live up to the expectations of us stat nerds.
What makes this season so different? Well, Boston is now moving forward with a much different team. Yes, they still have the star tandem of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the owners of the NBA’s richest new contract, but Marcus Smart, Malcolm Burrow Gurdon, Robert Williams III and Grant Williams are all gone. Instead, the Celtics acquired Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzintis, both of whom will add to Boston’s offense in head coach Joe Mazzula’s second season at the helm. New elements. But until we actually see it play out in big games, we won’t know exactly how the new combination will play out and whether it can bring Boston closer to an NBA championship.
Which new faces will have the biggest impact?
As with most NBA offseasons, there’s no shortage of big-name players swapping jerseys — or at least that’s what happened. try Do it—this summer. Here are the 2022-23 most valuable players, based on Consensus Plus/Minus WAR, who will play for different teams in 2023-24:
The most coveted transfer star is former Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard, and his pairing with Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo makes the Bucks a championship favorite this season. important reason. Depending on James Harden’s performance in the 2022-23 season, No. 2 could be the 76ers’ disgruntled James Harden, whether he joins the Los Angeles Clippers or another team. Lillard and Harden may no longer be in the prime of their careers, but they still have what it takes to help win a championship.
The rest of the list is filled with fascinating situations. As mentioned before, the Celtics did add two of the best prospects of the offseason, even if they came at a hefty price. steep its price. Veteran point guards Fred VanVleet and Chris Paul moved to teams in varying stages of success – the former signed a massive contract with Houston, a very young team The team has won less than 20 games in each of the past three years; the latter signed a huge contract with the Rockets. The latter was traded to the Golden State Warriors, and the team’s fit is ongoing, but the upside could be huge. The Phoenix Suns also made some additional moves to complement last year’s midseason addition of Kevin Durant, adding Bradley Beal (a legitimate third-stringer on championship teams when healthy) and the underrated Gray Sen Allen.
How about a coaching carousel?
In addition to all the player transfers, this summer is also very active for coaching changes. Among the six coaches leading the new team are two former NBA champions (Nick Nurse, now with the 76ers; Frank Vogel, now with the Suns), a former NBA finalist (Ime U Doka, now with the Rockets) and former Coach of the Year (Monty Williams, now with the Pistons).
How much impact would any one of them have? A coach’s fortunes depend as much on performance as on expectations, and expectations at many clubs are high. Of the teams that fired their former coaches, the Bucks, 76ers and Suns all won at least 45 games, while the Raptors were at .500. Most coaches in new positions have a track record of success, and it should be an interesting experiment to see how much of that can be carried over to a new destination with different players.
What other teams have us confused?
In its “Pure Messenger Mode,” which eliminates any mixing between purely mathematical power ratings and implied betting market odds, the model’s ratings (especially the regular season version) rank highly against the Cleveland Cavaliers, making them Probability of becoming the fifth best champion of any team. It’s not hard to get excited about the Cavaliers given their stellar defense and plethora of young talent, but it’s also hard to forget how badly Cleveland was blown away by the New York Knicks in the first round last year.
The Grizzlies are in a similar situation, with a ton of young talent, headlined by (but not limited to) Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. But with Morant suspended for the first 25 games of the season, it’s hard to say how good Memphis can be early on — and we can’t really rule out future incidents with Morant that could derail this team’s potential. When it comes to beating teams, you can’t talk about the maddening teams without mentioning the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks reunited Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, which sounds good on paper, but Dallas somehow managed a 5-11 record when the two stars played together last season. (Luka is now out with a calf strain and has no timetable for his return.)
Who will win the new in-season tournament? (Does anyone care?)
One of the biggest new changes to the NBA this season will be the in-season tournament, with group stages taking place on Tuesdays and Fridays throughout November (which can also double as the regular season), followed by knockout rounds in December to determine the championship on December 9 New NBA Cup game in Las Vegas. Here are the odds from our composite model, based on 5,000 simulations of the new tournament format:
Unsurprisingly, the NBA Cup favorites line up pretty closely with what we’ve seen from the NBA championship odds, but it’s a bit more prosaic – the in-season tournament format is smaller than the current NBA playoff games that determine knockout berths Much less, as well as a single-elimination format rather than a series. It’s at least possible that we’ll see a somewhat strange team emerge and win the championship in the first year of this experimental program.
It may also come down to whether the players — not to mention the fans — actually care about winning this thing. Each member of the winning team will receive $500,000, and the runner-up will receive $200,000. However, the cyclical nature of regular season games designated as group stages can make it difficult to track the games within this tournament in the standings, as well as the perceived relative value of the NBA Cup (compared to Larry O’s). ‘Bryan Trophy) was definitely low to begin with.
But as someone who supports anything that gives more meaning to the regular season, I’m all for this new, weird idea. This should be the overall theme of the 2023-24 season: After an extremely rare season in NBA history with five different championships in five years, anything is possible. So it’s time to embrace the different and unfamiliar – and we’ll be your guide throughout the journey.